The world’s toughest race starts Saturday, and it’s delightfully hard to call this year
Most readers probably did not anticipate seeing a Tour de France preview on Ars Technica, but here we are. Cycling is a huge passion of mine and several other staffers, and this year, a ton of intrigue surrounds the race, which has a fantastic route. So we're here to spread Tour fever.
The three-week race starts Saturday, paradoxically in the Italian region of Tuscany. Usually, there is a dominant rider, or at most two, and a clear sense of who is likely to win the demanding race. But this year, due to rider schedules, a terrible crash in early April, and new contenders, there is more uncertainty than usual. A solid case could be made for at least four riders to win this year's Tour de France.
For people who aren't fans of pro road cycling—which has to be at least 99 percent of the United States—there's a great series on Netflix called Unchained to help get you up to speed. The second season, just released, covers last year's Tour de France and introduces you to most of the protagonists in the forthcoming edition. If this article sparks your interest, I recommend checking it out.
Anyway, for those who are cycling curious, I want to set the stage for this year's race by saying a little bit about the four main contenders, from most likely to least likely to win, and provide some of the backstory to what could very well be a dramatic race this year.
Tadej Pogačar
Slovenia
25 years old
UAE Team Emirates
Odds: -190
Pogačar burst onto the scene in 2019 at the very young age of 20 by finishing third in the Vuelta a España, one of the three grand tours of cycling. He then went on to win the 2020 and 2021 Tours de France, first by surprising fellow countryman Primož Roglič (more on him below) in 2020 and then utterly dominating in 2021. Given his youth, it seemed he would be the premiere grand tour competitor for the next decade.
But then another slightly older rider, a teammate of Roglič's named Jonas Vingegaard, emerged in 2022 and won the next two races. Last year, in fact, Vingegaard cracked Pogačar by 7 minutes and 29 seconds in the Tour, a huge winning margin, especially for two riders of relatively close talent. This established Vingegaard as the alpha male of grand tour cyclists, having proven himself a better climber and time trialist than Pogačar, especially in the highest and hardest stages.
So this year, Pogačar decided to change up his strategy. Instead of focusing on the Tour de France, Pogačar participated in the first grand tour of the season, the Giro d'Italia, which occurred in May. He likely did so for a couple of reasons. First of all, he almost certainly received a generous appearance fee from the Italian organizers. And secondly, riding the Giro would give him a ready excuse for not beating Vingegaard in France.
Why is this? Because there are just five weeks between the end of the Giro and the start of the Tour. So if a rider peaks for the Giro and exerts himself in winning the race, it is generally thought that he can't arrive at the Tour in winning form. He will be a few percent off, not having ideal preparation.
Predictably, Pogačar smashed the lesser competition at the Giro and won the race by 9 minutes and 56 seconds. Because he was so far ahead, he was able to take the final week of the race a bit easier. The general thinking in the cycling community is that Pogačar is arriving at the Tour in excellent but not peak form. But given everything else that has happened so far this season, the bettors believe that will be enough for him to win. Maybe.
Jonas Vingegaard
Denmark
27 years old
Team Visma/Lease a Bike
Odds: +200
Vingegaard came to professional cycling at a later age, having famously worked in a fish market in his younger years. While Pogačar was winning his first Tour in 2020, Vingegaard didn't even make his trade team's lineup for the race. In his only grand tour that year, the Vuelta, Vingegaard finished an unpromising 46th.
However, he has made a rapid rise since, and he was unbeatable last year. As a result, he came into 2024 as the clear favorite. If not for a disastrous crash at a smaller one-week race in the Basque region of Spain on April 4, this likely would have been a boring Tour, and I would not be writing this article. You can see video of the horrific crash here. Pogačar, who was following a different race schedule due to his Giro preparations, was not at the race. But Vingegaard and the two other riders profiled in this article, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel, were. Though they all sustained serious injuries from the crash, Vingegaard's were by far the worst.
The Danish rider spent 12 days in the hospital after the crash, recovering from a fractured collarbone and ribs, a pulmonary contusion and a pneumothorax, and lung injuries. By the time of his release, the world's most dangerous and demanding sporting event was just 10.5 weeks away. He would not get back on his bike, tentatively, until May 7. Since then, he has resumed training in the mountains at altitude to build form for the Tour.
Truthfully, no one outside of his team knows what Vingegaard's condition is. In what may be a coordinated campaign to downplay his chances, some of Vingegaard's teammates have been suggesting he is not close to full fighting form. Vingegaard has not participated in a single race before the Tour, so we haven't seen him in action since early April. It's a real mystery.
Here's what I know: At full health, Vingegaard is the best grand tour rider on the planet. Even at close to full health, given Pogačar's participation in the Giro, I think he has a good chance of winning the Tour. It could be one hell of a dogfight.
Primož Roglič
Slovenia
34 years old
Red Bull - Bora - Hansgrohe
Odds: +800
Yes, another Slovenian! This mountainous country just east of Italy has a population of only 2.1 million people, but two of the three best grand tour riders in the world live there. It's quite incredible, but also a delightful quirk of cycling. Roglič was all set to win the Tour in 2020, with a healthy lead going into the final time trial. But he unexpectedly had a very bad ride, and Pogačar beat him in the overall race by 59 seconds.
It was an incredible moment that capped the stunning rise of Pogačar and deprived his countryman of his best chance to win the Tour. But the story did not end there. Two years later, Roglič was on the same team as Vingegaard, and after it became clear that the younger Dane was the stronger rider, Roglič helped his teammate get the win. Their teamwork on Stage 11 that year to overcome Pogačar was absolutely remarkable and one of the most epic moments in cycling history. See highlights here.
Roglič left Team Visma at the end of last year to move to a new team, Bora, so that he might have another shot at sole leadership during the Tour. At age 34, he is at the very end of what can be considered a viable window to have a shot to win the great race. (The Tour's oldest winner was a rider named Firmin Lambot, who was 36 years and 4 months. But he won way back in 1922).
The bottom line is that there is an incredible amount of history around Roglič, who was once the master but who has since been eclipsed by a fellow countryman in Pogačar and an apprentice in Vingegaard. Frankly, I am not sold on his chances. But if Pogačar has been sufficiently winded by his Giro participation and Vingegaard remains sufficiently unrecovered from his injuries, then Roglič stands to profit. He is just young enough, and he comes to the Tour with unquestioned leadership of a strong team.
Remco Evenepoel
Belgium
24 years old
Soudal Quick-Step
Odds: +1400
Full confession: I'm a big Remco fan. Unfortunately, of the four highest-favored riders, he has the lowest odds. That's not because of a lack of talent but because of a lack of pedigree—he has won the Vuelta just once, and he has never raced the Tour. Evenepoel also has yet to fully prove himself in the highest and hardest mountain stages and demonstrate consistency across a three-week tour.
So what's to like? He's young and brash, and he's a real racer. Like Pogačar, he is a bit less calculating than the others and more prone to making long attacks, far from the finish. He is very strong and probably the best time trialist. But how will he fare in the high mountains?
Evenepoel is the real wildcard of the bunch because we just don't know how he'll perform on cycling's biggest stage. He is a classic high-ceiling, low-floor rider. I could make a case for him winning and a case for him finishing 10th. But his talent is undeniable.
There are some other concerns besides a lack of consistency in results. Although he wasn't as badly injured as Vingegaard in the Basque race crash, Evenepoel did break a collarbone and spent a couple of days in the hospital. Another issue is that he comes to the Tour with a team that is not as strong as the others. He does not have as many elite climbing "domestique" riders as the other main contenders.
Anyone else?
Other riders could conceivably win the race, but the scenarios become increasingly far-fetched. Pogačar has a massively strong team, and two of his teammates—Brit Adam Yates and Spaniard Juan Ayuso—can climb very well. Both are solid candidates to finish among the top three and make the final podium.
For Americans, there is intrigue as well. Colorado native Sepp Kuss, who improbably won the Vuelta last year, is out of this year's race with an illness. That means Vingegaard is down his most capable ally in the mountains.
However, there is another younger American on Vingegaard's team, Matteo Jorgenson. He is just 24 years old and has impressively won a prestigious one-week race this year in Paris-Nice. Then, earlier this month, Jorgenson finished second to Roglič in a critical pre-Tour race called the Critérium du Dauphiné. He lost by just 8 seconds. Jorgenson could be a super support rider for Vingegaard or assume team leadership if he falters.
Jorgenson is potentially the best American grand tour rider since the extremely talented but flawed Lance Armstrong won (and then lost) seven Tours de France. I have gone through this whole article without mentioning doping, but it is ever there, lingering in the background of cycling. None of the riders in this article have been popped for using performance-enhancing drugs. They're all regularly tested. But who knows?
What I can say for sure is that they're all a lot nicer than Armstrong was. He could be a real bastard to other riders in the peloton. By and large, the modern riders are more refined in their behavior. Until the racing starts in earnest, at least. Then it's an epic battle. Which, my goodness, I can't wait for.
Is it Saturday yet?
